Pirates

Anyone notice we're about to go through a whole summer with out a Pirates of the Caribbean movie? I have. But this posting isn't about that. Pirates, of course, are in the news. They're the new big enemy, the crazier-than-Hitler types we love to read about and wish our governments would squash.

NPR's Planet Money[1][2] and a recent edition of EconTalk have both had interesting articles about the economics of piracy, as in real high seas swashbuckling piracy and not software or music piracy.

While our sense of social justice is satisfied if these kidnappings off the coast of Somalia end with a sniper bullet in the head of each pirate, it's not in the best interest of the pirates if the kidnapped crews come to harm. After all they are valuable alive for the ransom and worthless if shot out of hand. Killing a hostage not only lowers your profits but then makes your get away more difficult and costly. You'll likely not be pursued by a nation's special forces team if an orderly money/hostage exchange takes place. But if you spill blood, your get away becomes much more complicated. You might be pursued. You might have to take hostages to guard your retreat and feed them. Your profits melt away.

A user who goes by the name of Stonesean on the Skeptics Guide to the Universe message board noted rather poignantly:

As a career Navy man, I want to see these pirates pay just as much as the next guy, but to know that these are often just desperate, stupid kids who under different circumstances might have made something of themselves isn't truly saddening, I don't know what is....

The cost of being born in Somalia I guess...

I defer to the authority of a career Navy man.

We've been conditioned these past few years to think of anyone with an AK47 threatening a westerner as being some hardened Taliban killer that we don't quite grasp these are kids.

I used to work in a self serve gas station and we were coached on what to do if robbed. Hand over the money. Don't be a hero. The $83.78 they're getting away with is insured and not worth your life. Made sense.

I always cringe whenever I hear a news story about a store owner that gets robbed and then slays the robber. Emotionally, one feels the robber got justice. But from a game theory perspective if robbers know the moment they turn their backs with loot bag in hand to exit the 7-11, the store keep is going to reach for that shotgun under the counter and blow them away, are criminals going to go "well, better stop with the robbing and get a job at Burger King."

They will just up the violence. Their response will logically be to blow away the shop keep, step over his body, and take them money from the cash. It becomes a kill or be killed situation in the mind of the robber.

If we start shooting pirates, are pirates going to get out of the biz? Maybe pirates will decide it's better to band together. If you shoot one of our pirates at sea, we shoot one of the hundreds of hostages we currently have on land. Of course, the pirates at sea might not be part of the same gang as the gang that has land hostages. The gang with the land hostages might not be willing to shoot someone that still represents the possibility of a future pay day. However, if it becomes ideological, pirates might be willing.

-- Karl Mamer