A chicken recovery?

In trying to figure out the state of the economy, we analysts tend to look for lots of data. Not necessarily just systematic data, like figures on employment or housing (those are a given), but also anecdotal data which may provide economic insight or at least food for thought. Yesterday, an odd headline caught me eye. A good place to gauge the economy is by watching food sales- a fairly real time indicator.

Tyson Foods, the giant $27 billion processor of chicken, beef and pork and derivative products released quarterly earnings after which the stock traded down sharply in an otherwise bullish tape. When the economy improves, or at least bottoms out, companies like Tyson normally see improved pricing and demand. This is generally true of most food stuffs. Nonetheless, the CEO said (as always, emphasis is mine)

"This quarter will be a little tougher. I'm concerned about the softness in the economy. We're simply not seeing demand recovery we've previously expected."

After seeing this, I looked elsewhere for more analysis (since I don't follow Tyson very closely). Credit Suisse analysts wrote (and I just happened to come across CS' comments first) :

"one could argue pricing might fall further, but that is hard to believe given cold storage inventory down 15% from a year ago, the breeding flock down 6%, and the pullets placements for breeding down 5% year to date. To believe that Tyson and its chicken competitors would lower price in that scenario, one would have to have a very bearish view on the economy."

So, we have a strange signal here- either the market is understanding Tyson all wrong or it is mispricing this recovery. In the former scenario, Tyson ought to improve because pricing shouldn't go any lower and with a recovery, is probably on the verge of getting stronger. In the latter scenario, the economy isn't recovering as much as the market in general seems to think, which is indicated by Tyson's results.

Yes I know there are all sorts of individual factors we can't account for like substitution, which shouldn't matter in aggregate though. In fact the CEO also said "Soft demand for protein is likely to make the fourth quarter more challenging than the third quarter".  Other factors include competitors actions, weather, grain prices, exchange rates, swine flu, etc. Yet I can find a dozen such examples everywhere I look. So much for efficient markets. There is opportunity (one way or the other) that is not appropriately priced in the market. Something doesn't add up.